Tue, Dec 3, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 010 | 19 | 00 | 225 |
| BOS | 112 | 07 | 114 | 12 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:31DETLucas RaymondAssists: Simon Edvinsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:15BOSNikita ZadorovAssists: Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:19DETLucas RaymondAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Simon Edvinsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 9:32BOSJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Mason Lohrei, Trent Frederic · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:15BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:00DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P2 11:08BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:09BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:30DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:30BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:01BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P2 18:01DETJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P3 6:31BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:28DETBen Chiarot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:15DETErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Berggren – Kasper9:25
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Copp – Compher – DeBrincat3:48
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond11:12
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Copp – Fischer – Veleno5:14
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:27
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Edvinsson3:40
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Holl – Gustafsson10:40
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Lindholm – McLaughlin2:21
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Kastelic10:34
xG 0.24–0.19 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau5:29
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Koepke – Beecher – McLaughlin4:37
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Carlo14:19
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Oesterle – McAvoy17:11
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Peeke – Lohrei10:41
xG 0.14–0.49 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).