Wed, Dec 4, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 112 | 111 | 210 | 433 |
| ANA | 07 | 17 | 06 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:26VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Victor Olofsson, Nicolas Hague · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 6:38VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 18:01ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 3:05VGKAlexander HoltzAssists: Tanner Pearson, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:16VGKShea TheodoreENAssists: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 8:33ANAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min
- P2 15:59VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:32ANAAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Olofsson – Howden4:38
xG 0.52–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Olofsson – Eichel7:51
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pearson – Hertl – Holtz5:26
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Dorofeyev4:30
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore18:37
xG 1.03–0.63 (62%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin16:05
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Hague – Korczak12:12
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – McTavish2:48
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Gauthier2:05
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Colangelo8:33
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Lundeström – Leason – Gauthier7:59
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Zellweger15:02
xG 0.83–0.50 (62%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson17:12
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
- Gudas – Fowler15:38
xG 0.38–1.03 (27%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).