Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 17 | 16 | 322 |
| EDM | 113 | 415 | 18 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31CBJKevin LabancAssists: Mikael Pyyhtia, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:46EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 2:22EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 4:02EDMMattias EkholmPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 6:53EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 10:02CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Cole Sillinger, Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 18:30EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 6:10CBJCole SillingerAssists: Jordan Harris, Jake Christiansen · Snap, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 13:37EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:56CBJDmitri Voronkov: Interference2 min
- P1 19:20EDMMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:22CBJAdam Fantilli: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 13:36CBJDante Fabbro: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:19EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:28CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Sillinger – Fantilli6:32
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Johnson3:46
xG 0.09–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Voronkov – Sillinger – Fantilli3:28
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov7:25
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro15:26
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Harris – Christiansen10:23
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Severson – Provorov17:49
xG 0.26–1.06 (20%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:57
xG 0.80–0.03 (96%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Perry – Brown – Ryan6:19
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin11:15
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Janmark9:11
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:02
xG 1.07–0.31 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Kulak – Emberson9:01
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Nurse – Stecher10:10
xG 0.51–0.02 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).