Fri, Dec 6, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 19 | 17 | 222 |
| NYR | 010 | 214 | 28 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:19PITBlake LizotteAssists: Cody Glass, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:28NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:58NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:29PITPhilip TomasinoAssists: Michael Bunting, Marcus Pettersson · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:53NYRReilly SmithGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 18:22NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:15NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:02NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:06NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:06PITBlake Lizotte: Interference2 min
- P2 12:39PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08NYRSam Carrick: Holding2 min
- P3 4:39PITRyan Shea: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:18NYRZac Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:36PITAnthony Beauvillier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell11:26
xG 1.11–0.90 (55%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Malkin – Tomasino – O'Connor7:36
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Hayes – Acciari – Glass4:37
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Lizotte9:21
xG 0.03–0.48 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:08
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Pettersson – Shea2:08
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–2
- Shea – Pickering8:53
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Smith – Zibanejad9:23
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:15
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 3–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Cuylle7:34
xG 0.17–0.30 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Carrick – Vesey – Edstrom5:20
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:42
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Schneider14:45
xG 1.17–0.84 (58%)attempts 18–8goals 3–1
- Jones – Mancini10:15
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).