Fri, Dec 6, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 217 | 09 | 06 | 232 |
| VAN | 02 | 27 | 38 | 517 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:10CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Cole Sillinger, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:18CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Ivan Provorov, Kirill Marchenko · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:52VANBrock BoeserAssists: Quinn Hughes, Vincent Desharnais · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 19:00VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:17VANPius SuterGWGAssists: Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 10:22VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:55VANPius SuterENAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:50CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:50VANErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:16VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36VANVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P2 15:01CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01VANDakota Joshua: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:01CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:01VANNoah Juulsen: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:54CBJZach Werenski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:54VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:54CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:51CBJSean Monahan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:34VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Monahan – Johnson9:30
xG 0.57–0.06 (90%)attempts 20–3goals 0–1
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Sillinger7:32
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Danforth6:32
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli8:10
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov7:25
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro11:07
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Harris – Christiansen4:56
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson11:01
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Joshua – Garland – Suter9:04
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Heinen – Räty – Sasson5:26
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – Sherwood – Hoglander7:05
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes11:13
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Hughes4:58
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Myers – Brannstrom3:05
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).