Fri, Dec 6, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Dallas Stars 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 19 | 118 | 240 |
| VGK | 110 | 211 | 07 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:23VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 6:39DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Oskar Bäck, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 15:40VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Shea Theodore · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:48VGKNicolas RoyGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:26DALMason MarchmentAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:45VGKShea Theodore: Holding2 min
- P1 9:32DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
- P1 14:09DALSam Steel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:13DALMavrik Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:22VGKNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:04DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 0:08DALMason Marchment: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Hintz – Robertson2:53
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Bourque – Johnston2:51
xG 0.16–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston9:28
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Stankoven11:49
xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley5:59
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Harley5:52
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Lindell – Lyubushkin3:43
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel10:08
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Howden – Dorofeyev9:50
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Holtz8:07
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy6:30
xG 0.02–0.38 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore15:12
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Hague – Korczak7:39
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin16:29
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).