Sat, Dec 7, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 12 | 119 | 331 |
| NYI | 011 | 412 | 02 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:43CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:05NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Maxim Tsyplakov · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 9:23CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 10:06NYIOliver WahlstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:16NYIMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 18:55NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:11CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:21CARJalen Chatfield: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:15CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:37NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:50NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:54CARPyotr Kochetkov: Interference2 min
- P3 12:54NYIAnders Lee: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Roslovic – Svechnikov6:13
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Jarvis3:42
xG 0.07–0.01 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Necas – Svechnikov2:56
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Robinson – Kotkaniemi – Blake2:19
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Slavin15:00
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield15:20
xG 0.59–1.06 (36%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker12:30
xG 0.12–0.66 (15%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Horvat – Tsyplakov9:27
xG 0.80–0.30 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Cizikas – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom8:09
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Martin – Fasching – MacLean6:56
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Nelson11:26
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Cholowski9:36
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dobson – George14:56
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 9–23goals 1–0
- Pulock – Romanov14:06
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).