Sat, Dec 7, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 18 | 318 | 435 |
| MTL | 210 | 05 | 09 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:00MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 0:33WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: John Carlson, Taylor Raddysh · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 7:10WSHTom WilsonAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 11:48WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 13:49WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:00MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:29WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:12MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:24MTLLane Hutson: Holding2 min
- P3 18:26WSHJohn Carlson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Duhaime – Miroshnichenko6:54
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas3:06
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Wilson – Strome – Protas6:30
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Dubois – McMichael7:18
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun9:29
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Carlson – Chychrun2:27
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry3:09
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Dach – Slafkovský11:16
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:26
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Armia – Evans – Heineman9:28
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook12:36
xG 0.71–1.32 (35%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Struble – Guhle10:13
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj14:49
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Struble – Hutson2:18
xG 0.01–0.11 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).