Sat, Dec 7, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 16 | 011 | 225 |
| DET | 010 | 111 | 09 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Samuel Girard, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:44COLCale MakarPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 18:13DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:56COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:56DETTyler Motte: Embellishment2 min
- P2 2:16DETVladimir Tarasenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Colton – Mittelstadt11:30
xG 0.95–0.17 (85%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta9:56
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kovalenko – Ivan4:36
xG 0.02–0.23 (10%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:25
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:43
xG 0.93–0.31 (75%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – Toews3:19
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski12:04
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat11:52
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond12:10
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Motte – Copp – Veleno9:16
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Berggren – Kasper11:09
xG 0.24–1.02 (19%)attempts 6–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson18:11
xG 1.03–0.60 (63%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Holl – Gustafsson13:59
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot16:39
xG 0.24–1.36 (15%)attempts 11–32goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).