Sat, Dec 7, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 07 | 214 | 231 |
| EDM | 15 | 210 | 16 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25EDMCorey PerryAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:19EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 14:37EDMZach HymanPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 5:02STLDylan HollowayAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 13:09STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 14:18EDMTroy StecherAssists: Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 13:21STLRadek Faksa: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 11:06EDMMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P3 11:57EDMTroy Stecher: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Holloway – Bolduc12:11
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou6:41
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas6:02
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours3:52
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Faulk16:32
xG 0.57–0.39 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Suter – Parayko3:08
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg16:52
xG 0.69–0.92 (43%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:30
xG 0.70–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Janmark9:04
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin9:37
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Perry – Brown – Ryan4:46
xG 0.01–0.56 (2%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:07
xG 1.04–0.47 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Kulak – Emberson12:14
xG 0.66–0.42 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse6:05
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).