Sun, Dec 8, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 4, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 111 | 15 | 424 |
| NJD | 010 | 02 | 013 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07COLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 14:52COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Calvin de Haan, Joel Kiviranta · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 14:36COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 16:05COLParker KellyENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.64 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:35COLSam Malinski: Interference2 min
- P2 15:19NJDStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:38COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
- P3 9:00NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:35COLIvan Ivan: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:51
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta7:45
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Wagner – Ivan – Prishchepov4:19
xG 0.04–0.01 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Colton – Mittelstadt11:16
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:30
xG 0.63–0.11 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- de Haan – Middleton8:30
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Middleton – Girard2:03
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes9:53
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Dowling – Cotter – Légaré6:11
xG 0.02–0.01 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier9:37
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tatar – Haula – Mercer7:07
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes15:50
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic13:17
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton12:25
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).