Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New Jersey Devils 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 01 | 05 | 19 | 12 | 217 |
| NJD | 016 | 111 | 011 | 01 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:16NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 10:42TORPontus HolmbergSHAssists: Connor Dewar, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 2:51TORAuston MatthewsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:19NJDErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:21TORSimon Benoit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:53TORMorgan Rielly: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:47NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 14:29TORChris Tanev: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:02NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:18TORMatthew Knies: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hughes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies5:50
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Domi – Holmberg – Minten2:27
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Domi – Lorentz – Minten3:59
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Marner – Matthews4:01
xG 0.08–0.42 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit4:18
xG 0.23–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:42
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins7:42
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer11:04
xG 1.15–0.26 (82%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Bastian4:20
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes7:45
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter9:21
xG 0.08–0.41 (16%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes13:00
xG 1.30–0.40 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic12:29
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton11:58
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).