Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 17 | 07 | 223 |
| CAR | 111 | 08 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: William Carrier, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:51SJSLuke KuninAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:44SJSLuke KuninAssists: William Eklund · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 4:11CARBrent BurnsAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 17:21CARJalen ChatfieldGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:13CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P2 4:58SJSJan Rutta: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:38CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:33SJSKlim Kostin: Interference2 min
- P2 19:47SJSKlim Kostin: Holding2 min
- P3 4:18CARSean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:39SJSMario Ferraro: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kostin – Celebrini8:57
xG 0.51–0.23 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dellandrea – Kovalenko – Sturm5:20
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Kunin8:56
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund8:39
xG 0.01–1.04 (1%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren11:03
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Ceci – Walman14:50
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
- Ferraro – Rutta3:59
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Necas – Jarvis5:49
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Robinson – Jarvis2:13
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov3:47
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carrier – Aho – Blake2:21
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield12:54
xG 1.11–0.16 (88%)attempts 24–6goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin12:34
xG 0.58–0.64 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – Slavin2:13
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).