Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 4, Nashville Predators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 316 | 04 | 428 |
| NSH | 28 | 15 | 07 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:22CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 10:52NSHTommy NovakAssists: Mark Jankowski, Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 2:27CGYKevin RooneyAssists: Walker Duehr · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 7:41NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 13:49CGYBrayden PachalAssists: Jakob Pelletier, Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 18:41CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Matt Coronato, Connor Zary · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:08CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:25NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Holding2 min
- P2 16:48NSHMark Jankowski: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 12:32CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Zary – Kuzmenko10:32
xG 0.58–0.02 (96%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil11:34
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Rooney – Pelletier – Duehr4:30
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 2–1
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato12:25
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov15:34
xG 0.80–0.04 (95%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal9:32
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Bahl – Miromanov2:21
xG 0.02–0.00 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista8:57
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- McCarron – Parssinen – Smith2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg13:13
xG 0.46–0.68 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Parssinen – L'Heureux – Svechkov5:13
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 5–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby2:47
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Josi – Wilsby4:26
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Skjei – Wilsby3:39
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).