Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Minnesota Wild 5, Utah Hockey Club 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 017 | 210 | 28 | 03 | 1 | 538 |
| UTA | 15 | 07 | 39 | 04 | 0 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:46UTAKevin StenlundAssists: Michael Carcone, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 14:25MINMarat KhusnutdinovUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:01MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 4:42UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 5:39MINMarcus JohanssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 9:54UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 11:45UTAJuuso VälimäkiAssists: Lawson Crouse · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:16MINMarco RossiAssists: Marcus Johansson, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.19 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. UTA Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 3. UTA Clayton Keller stopped
- 4. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 5. UTA Nick Bjugstad stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:52UTAClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:31MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P2 0:27UTALogan Cooley: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:16MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:38MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Kaprizov – Rossi5:49
xG 0.54–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Trenin – Lauko7:57
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Boldy4:17
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi10:08
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber17:23
xG 1.61–0.46 (78%)attempts 22–15goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Merrill11:31
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm16:39
xG 0.39–0.87 (31%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:39
xG 0.73–0.77 (49%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley9:49
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone7:51
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:26
xG 0.21–0.64 (25%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Välimäki2:01
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Cole – Välimäki2:04
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Maatta – Välimäki4:16
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).