Wed, Dec 11, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 012 | 25 | 328 |
| BUF | 07 | 08 | 216 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:01NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 13:29NYRReilly SmithAssists: Adam Fox, Sam Carrick · Snap, 0.34 xG2–0
- P3 15:09BUFOwen PowerAssists: Peyton Krebs, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 17:58NYRAdam FoxENGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 19:22BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Owen Power, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:20NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:53BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:02BUFRyan Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:27NYRRyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P3 2:07BUFRyan Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:36BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:36NYRVincent Trocheck: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière8:59
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Carrick – Edstrom – Berard7:15
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Chytil – Kakko – Cuylle10:13
xG 0.33–0.72 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Kreider – Smith – Zibanejad9:46
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:29
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Jones – Mancini10:16
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Schneider – Mancini4:49
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Greenway – McLeod8:29
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Cozens – Kulich – Benson8:42
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka6:43
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs5:10
xG 0.13–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power7:40
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Johnson4:36
xG 0.29–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power6:34
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).