Wed, Dec 11, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Anaheim Ducks 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 010 | 016 | 16 | 132 |
| OTT | 319 | 16 | 19 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55OTTNoah GregorAssists: Zack Ostapchuk, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 11:15OTTDrake BathersonPPGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 18:25OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 10:30OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–4
- P3 8:58OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Bat, 0.20 xG0–5
- P3 12:42ANACutter GauthierAssists: Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:49OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:49ANAPavel Mintyukov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:54ANARadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:22ANAAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:41OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P2 18:34OTTJosh Norris: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:14ANABrett Leason: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:48ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:48ANARoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:51OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:51ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:51OTTTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Leason – Carlsson8:15
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – McTavish – Gauthier10:19
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry10:56
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Johnston – Harkins – Lundeström5:53
xG 0.02–0.61 (3%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Trouba10:07
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Fowler – Zellweger2:45
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov2:39
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Amadio – Pinto11:50
xG 0.89–0.25 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk4:07
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk9:33
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle9:45
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot16:08
xG 1.39–0.56 (71%)attempts 25–17goals 2–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson10:53
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven12:51
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).