Thu, Dec 12, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 9, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 29 | 614 | 933 |
| MTL | 16 | 111 | 06 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:18PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Kris Letang, Matt Grzelcyk · Snap, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 10:03PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 13:27PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 14:36MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Emil Heineman, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:40PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 7:42PITKris LetangPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 8:41PITAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Cody Glass, Drew O'Connor · Poke, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 11:56PITBryan RustUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG7–2
- P3 14:20PITMatt NietoAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Blake Lizotte · Tip-in, 0.09 xG8–2
- P3 18:42PITNoel AcciariUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG9–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:11MTLPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:11PITBlake Lizotte: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:02PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:53PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:11MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:51MTLJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:24PITRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell10:52
xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 20–5goals 4–1
- Malkin – Bunting – Tomasino11:21
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte7:30
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Beauvillier – Glass – O'Connor8:42
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson13:50
xG 1.45–0.29 (83%)attempts 25–4goals 3–0
- Grzelcyk – Graves9:45
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 3–0
- Letang – Pickering13:39
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak7:33
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook6:09
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský5:44
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Anderson – Evans2:53
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestXhekaj – Hutson3:35
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle3:40
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Matheson – Hutson10:26
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).