Thu, Dec 12, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Chicago Blackhawks 4, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 05 | 314 | 430 |
| NYI | 06 | 28 | 37 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:47CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Ryan Donato, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 6:59NYIDennis CholowskiAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:06NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Ryan Pulock, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:39NYINoah DobsonAssists: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 6:36NYIBo HorvatAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 7:58NYIMaxim TsyplakovGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 11:04CHITJ BrodieAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 18:50CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 19:50CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Alex Vlasic, Connor Bedard · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:10NYIDennis Cholowski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:31CHICraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:56CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:58NYIIsaiah George: Holding2 min
- P3 14:54CHIKevin Korchinski: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bertuzzi – Donato8:44
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Teravainen – Dickinson5:48
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Dickinson – Bedard2:53
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Kurashev – Mikheyev – Bedard6:57
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Allan11:12
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Murphy – Vlasic2:27
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Kaiser14:22
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov7:14
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Pageau – Horvat – Holmstrom5:18
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom4:16
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pageau – Horvat – Tsyplakov4:19
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pulock – Romanov13:27
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Mayfield – George11:03
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Cholowski – Dobson14:22
xG 0.06–0.75 (8%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).