Thu, Dec 12, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 7, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 213 | 313 | 29 | 735 |
| MIN | 113 | 06 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:59EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:40EDMKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 18:48MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 1:55EDMConnor BrownSHAssists: Mattias Janmark, Ty Emberson · Snap, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 12:54EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–1
- P2 15:54EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard, Vasily Podkolzin · Deflected, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 6:55EDMTroy StecherAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–1
- P3 17:26EDMDerek RyanAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.07 xG7–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:54MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:11MINJakub Lauko: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:11EDMTy Emberson: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:51EDMJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:16MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P2 0:36EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:58MINMarcus Foligno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:43MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:22EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Skinner – Janmark7:58
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Perry – Brown – Ryan6:39
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin8:51
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:24
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson10:14
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher6:54
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:03
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKaprizov – Boldy – Rossi5:46
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Foligno – Hartman4:23
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Trenin – Lauko5:51
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Johansson – Kaprizov – Rossi8:40
xG 0.18–0.33 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill7:54
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Chisholm3:47
xG 0.13–0.07 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Chisholm – Faber5:23
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).