Thu, Dec 12, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 012 | 010 | 213 | 11 | 336 |
| WPG | 14 | 06 | 19 | 01 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27WPGNikita ChibrikovAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 4:34VGKKeegan KolesarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 10:55WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 18:11VGKVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 3:47VGKIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:04WPGNeal Pionk: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:51WPGNino Niederreiter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:20VGKJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:20WPGGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:33WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Kolesar – Roy10:23
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Howden – Dorofeyev9:44
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel13:58
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Holtz9:03
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin17:44
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 31–15goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:35
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 26–8goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud14:00
xG 0.65–0.33 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari8:03
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Perfetti – Chibrikov9:11
xG 0.24–0.58 (30%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:43
xG 0.07–0.43 (13%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:41
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 8–24goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Morrissey – Pionk2:03
xG 0.03–0.05 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley2:19
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Morrissey – Stanley2:38
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).