Thu, Dec 12, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Utah Hockey Club 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 110 | 27 | 16 | 423 |
| COL | 07 | 010 | 17 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:26UTADylan GuentherAssists: Michael Kesselring, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 8:05UTAVladislav KolyachonokGWGAssists: Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 9:52UTADylan GuentherPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 15:26COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 15:49UTAKevin StenlundENAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:54UTAOlli Maatta: Holding2 min
- P2 9:43COLGivani Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43UTADylan Guenther: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestMcBain – Guenther – Cooley11:17
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone7:35
xG 0.17–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:23
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Stenlund2:10
xG 0.02–0.11 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kolyachonok7:02
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring3:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Kesselring13:33
xG 0.46–0.51 (48%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Smith – Ivan4:58
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Colton – Mittelstadt11:43
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta10:10
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:44
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:45
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Girard – Malinski12:55
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- de Haan – Middleton7:03
xG 0.12–0.17 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).