Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 218 | 115 | 342 |
| EDM | 113 | 411 | 110 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:36EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:13EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 6:53EDMConnor BrownAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 10:46EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Mattias Janmark · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 12:53EDMCorey PerryAssists: Connor Brown, Derek Ryan · Snap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 15:35VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–5
- P2 16:01VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
- P3 1:00VGKBrett HowdenSHUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 1:38EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.12 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:22EDMTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P1 16:33VGKBrett Howden: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32VGKIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Howden – Dorofeyev11:52
xG 1.08–0.29 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy9:14
xG 1.06–0.49 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:12
xG 0.93–0.77 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Hertl – Olofsson – Holtz11:37
xG 0.48–0.40 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin17:14
xG 1.68–0.63 (73%)attempts 26–15goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud14:03
xG 1.10–0.65 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:45
xG 0.58–1.30 (31%)attempts 22–22goals 0–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin11:56
xG 1.10–0.66 (63%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Perry – Brown – Ryan7:13
xG 0.13–0.61 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:20
xG 0.41–1.00 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Henrique – Skinner – Janmark9:11
xG 0.27–0.96 (22%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard2:14
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Nurse2:18
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Kulak – Emberson5:32
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).