Sat, Dec 14, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 1, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 03 | 06 | 00 | 116 |
| DAL | 010 | 114 | 010 | 13 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:08STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:39DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.17 xG1–1
- OT 2:31DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Esa Lindell, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:05DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:14DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:58STLBrayden Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31STLAlexandre Texier: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:47STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
- P2 13:47DALMason Marchment: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:23STLJake Neighbours: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:29STLRobert Thomas: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Walker won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Texier – Bolduc7:22
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Walker – Joseph – Toropchenko6:32
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Holloway – Neighbours11:05
xG 0.61–0.73 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:21
xG 0.43–0.93 (32%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Parayko2:49
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Faulk4:02
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg15:36
xG 0.67–0.91 (43%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Bäck – Bourque5:42
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Steel7:30
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston11:41
xG 0.69–0.47 (59%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Stankoven11:47
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Harley3:34
xG 0.27–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Lyubushkin5:31
xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin4:24
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).