Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 0, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 014 | 010 | 032 |
| CGY | 15 | 19 | 113 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57CGYNazem KadriGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 19:05CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Matt Coronato, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 6:17CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:24CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min
- P1 19:41CGYJoel Hanley: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 2:38FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00FLAEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P3 19:31CGYJake Bean: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Luostarinen – Samoskevich3:20
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Lundell3:00
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:05
xG 0.33–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich7:58
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling11:48
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Forsling6:05
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Mikkola3:35
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil11:39
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato12:04
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr6:40
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary8:19
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl13:19
xG 0.64–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Weegar – Hanley14:37
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal14:37
xG 0.37–1.05 (26%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).