Sat, Dec 14, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Utah Hockey Club 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 111 | 112 | 217 | 440 |
| SJS | 18 | 110 | 14 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27UTADylan GuentherAssists: Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 14:58SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:11SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 18:52UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 5:00SJSFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Nikolai Kovalenko, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 9:49UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 19:16UTAClayton KellerPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:11UTAJuuso Välimäki: Interference2 min
- P1 8:19SJSLuke Kunin: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:26UTALogan Cooley: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:26SJSWilliam Eklund: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:06SJSLuke Kunin: Holding2 min
- P2 7:17SJSTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:07UTANick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:40SJSNico Sturm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:55SJSMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:35UTAOlli Maatta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:39SJSJan Rutta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:39UTAJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:02SJSCody Ceci: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestMcBain – Guenther – Cooley8:30
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:55
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:30
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone5:56
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 3–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kolyachonok5:58
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Maatta5:04
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Välimäki2:23
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kovalenko – Celebrini8:56
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Dellandrea – Sturm2:54
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund6:29
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Smith7:11
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Walman12:22
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Liljegren11:55
xG 0.18–0.49 (26%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
- Rutta – Mukhamadullin10:39
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).