Sun, Dec 15, 2024·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 114 | 113 | 333 |
| CHI | 210 | 16 | 27 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:08CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Nolan Allan · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:43NYIRyan PulockUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:40CHITaylor HallAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Alex Vlasic · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 2:25NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Pierre Engvall, Kyle MacLean · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 15:19CHITeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Alex Vlasic · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 0:47NYINoah DobsonAssists: Brock Nelson, Maxim Tsyplakov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 19:06CHIConnor BedardGWGAssists: Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 19:49CHIConnor MurphyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 13:02CHITaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:53NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:07NYIAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:03CHINolan Allan: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:47CHIRyan Donato: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 16:40CHIRyan Donato: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – MacLean – Holmstrom9:29
xG 0.99–0.40 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov12:13
xG 0.65–0.21 (76%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal11:18
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Fasching8:08
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov17:27
xG 1.52–0.60 (72%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Cholowski10:00
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock14:47
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Anderson – Reichel6:20
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Nazar8:37
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev10:28
xG 0.65–1.01 (39%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Donato – Kurashev – Bedard10:55
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Vlasic2:28
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Brodie – Korchinski13:02
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Vlasic – Crevier11:56
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).