Sun, Dec 15, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 110 | 010 | 128 |
| CAR | 212 | 19 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:28CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 19:08CARWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 15:52CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 17:16CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jordan Staal, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 6:19CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:06CARAndrei Svechnikov: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 3:56CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:36CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:03CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:16CBJKirill Marchenko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 19:01CARSeth Jarvis: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:38CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov5:27
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Sillinger7:33
xG 0.19–0.24 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli5:41
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Fantilli5:06
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Fabbro3:13
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Severson – Christiansen4:03
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski2:04
xG 0.15–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier9:04
xG 0.54–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Aho – Robinson – Jarvis10:23
xG 0.47–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Jost – Blake7:30
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov11:30
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:40
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin11:44
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker13:14
xG 0.39–0.27 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).