Mon, Dec 16, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 6, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 19 | 310 | 628 |
| EDM | 110 | 310 | 110 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42FLAJesper BoqvistSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 15:13EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:32FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 6:20EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 7:03EDMConnor BrownAssists: Corey Perry · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 9:24EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 17:55FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Anton Lundell, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 6:53FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 7:23FLASam ReinhartUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 8:02EDMKasperi KapanenAssists: Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–5
- P3 13:05FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.14 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:33FLANiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:49EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:44EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:44EDMDarnell Nurse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:27FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:43FLAA.J. Greer: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:43FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:43EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:48EDMDarnell Nurse: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich7:47
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich5:58
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:01
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:44
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Balinskis9:33
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola14:19
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 2–2
- Ekblad – Forsling15:01
xG 0.76–1.08 (41%)attempts 14–21goals 1–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid8:17
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin2:52
xG 0.41–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen – Podkolzin6:21
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid3:31
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:28
xG 0.80–0.24 (77%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Kulak – Nurse7:25
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Stecher – Emberson2:33
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).