Mon, Dec 16, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 1, Vancouver Canucks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 013 | 112 | 131 |
| VAN | 110 | 110 | 15 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:14VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Danton Heinen, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 16:04VANKiefer SherwoodSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 17:25VANKiefer SherwoodENAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–3
- P3 19:14COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:08VANErik Brannstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:25VANJ.T. Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:29COLSamuel Girard: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:13COLKeaton Middleton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:07VANDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:34VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Felhaber – Ivan3:32
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta7:23
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Colton – Mittelstadt3:04
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:01
xG 0.05–0.01 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Middleton5:13
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Makar – Malinski2:20
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Malinski2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Suter – Sherwood7:03
xG 0.97–0.13 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Sasson10:08
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Garland11:10
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Hoglander6:34
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Juulsen11:01
xG 1.37–0.23 (86%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Soucy – Hughes2:45
xG 0.21–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Hughes3:09
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).