Tue, Dec 17, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 1, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 03 | 110 | 08 | 121 |
| MTL | 211 | 410 | 06 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jake Evans, Emil Heineman · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:26MTLPatrik LainePPGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 3:43BUFDylan CozensAssists: JJ Peterka, Owen Power · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 5:54MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield, David Savard · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 9:45MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 10:55MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P2 19:15MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Christian Dvorak, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.24 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:06BUFZach Benson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:35BUFMattias Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P1 12:16MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:02BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:30BUFAlex Tuch: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:11BUFDylan Cozens: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:47MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:26MTLLane Hutson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:34MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:34BUFDennis Gilbert: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:20MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Benson4:18
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Kulich4:41
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Krebs7:55
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- McLeod – Kulich – Benson2:35
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Byram14:47
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Clifton – Gilbert8:28
xG 0.28–0.56 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power14:58
xG 0.22–0.76 (23%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:56
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak8:34
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:21
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook8:01
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron10:33
xG 0.96–0.44 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj11:09
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 2–1
- Matheson – Guhle2:50
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).