Tue, Dec 17, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 110 | 011 | 00 | 231 |
| PIT | 010 | 112 | 18 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 6:22PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Michael Bunting, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:38LAKAlex TurcotteAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 14:25PITMatt GrzelcykAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 1:44PITRickard RakellGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Michael Bunting · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:45PITRickard Rakell: Interference2 min
- P1 5:59LAKWarren Foegele: Holding2 min
- P1 13:37PITCody Glass: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:43LAKAlex Laferriere: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:14LAKJordan Spence: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:10PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Laferriere10:18
xG 1.19–0.03 (97%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Foegele – Jeannot – Byfield11:37
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Foegele – Thomas – Helenius2:15
xG 0.00–0.00 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte11:16
xG 0.40–0.82 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoverare – Spence8:21
xG 1.13–0.31 (79%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Clarke8:01
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Spence2:25
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell12:48
xG 0.94–0.35 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Beauvillier – Glass – O'Connor6:54
xG 0.23–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte6:37
xG 0.00–0.12 (4%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Tomasino9:31
xG 0.48–0.99 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Grzelcyk2:54
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk14:34
xG 0.62–0.42 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Graves – Shea8:32
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).