Tue, Dec 17, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 04 | 112 | 215 | 14 | 435 |
| CGY | 09 | 39 | 05 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:54CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:21CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Martin Pospisil · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 6:31BOSElias LindholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 17:19CGYRyan LombergAssists: Connor Zary, Jakob Pelletier · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 4:14BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Andrew Peeke, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 6:51BOSMarc McLaughlinAssists: Brad Marchand, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 4:22BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (1)
- P3 8:37CGYJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie15:00
xG 1.11–0.45 (71%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm8:07
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Kastelic4:33
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau5:15
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Lohrei17:07
xG 1.07–0.48 (69%)attempts 20–17goals 2–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy18:11
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Oesterle – Carlo17:55
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil13:21
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary10:22
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr6:50
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato14:32
xG 0.57–0.91 (39%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley16:52
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 21–11goals 2–1
- Bean – Pachal15:27
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl20:34
xG 0.36–1.65 (18%)attempts 16–24goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).