Tue, Dec 17, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Ottawa Senators 3, Seattle Kraken 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 212 | 18 | 327 |
| SEA | 015 | 07 | 08 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:02OTTShane PintoGWGAssists: Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:45OTTNoah GregorAssists: Ridly Greig, Zack Ostapchuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 4:18OTTTim StützleAssists: Adam Gaudette, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:35OTTNoah Gregor: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:36OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:26SEARyker Evans: Holding2 min
- P3 6:13SEAWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:27OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:28OTTRidly Greig: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:28SEAShane Wright: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:12SEAChandler Stephenson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Gaudette – Stützle7:57
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk5:38
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:49
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:39
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot13:37
xG 0.99–0.37 (73%)attempts 26–15goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson14:25
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven10:16
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Tanev – Beniers8:34
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stephens – Kartye – Winterton2:32
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright6:19
xG 0.01–0.12 (4%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Burakovsky – McCann10:39
xG 0.21–1.00 (17%)attempts 11–26goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borgen – Evans12:27
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn10:09
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Montour – Dunn2:32
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).