Wed, Dec 18, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 14 | 115 | 223 |
| ANA | 012 | 110 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:45ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Radko Gudas, Ryan Strome · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:24WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 4:13WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 15:14ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 19:34ANATroy TerryGWGAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:03WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:42ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:15ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:24WPGRasmus Kupari: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:30WPGLogan Stanley: Interference2 min
- P3 4:54ANAOlen Zellweger: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:51ANALeo Carlsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari5:46
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:42
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:14
xG 0.30–0.90 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:09
xG 0.56–1.47 (28%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Stanley – Heinola10:22
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Fleury – Pionk14:54
xG 0.30–0.93 (24%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:53
xG 0.49–1.19 (29%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry10:53
xG 1.65–0.48 (78%)attempts 20–9goals 3–1
- Johnston – Harkins – Lundeström8:46
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier10:58
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Killorn – McGinn – Carlsson9:53
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe10:40
xG 1.92–0.35 (85%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- Dumoulin – Mintyukov15:26
xG 0.59–0.16 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger17:39
xG 0.46–0.80 (36%)attempts 18–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).