Thu, Dec 19, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 112 | 010 | 132 |
| TBL | 17 | 28 | 03 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Conor Geekie, Brandon Hagel · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:42TBLNick PerbixGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 12:15STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 13:33TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:11TBLJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31STLBrayden Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:10STLDylan Holloway: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:31TBLRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P2 18:58TBLEmil Lilleberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:58STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:15STLJoel Hofer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:36
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Joseph – Texier – Bolduc8:25
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:32
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Saad – Walker – Toropchenko6:53
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Faulk16:52
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko17:15
xG 0.65–0.88 (43%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point13:11
xG 1.19–0.57 (68%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie9:24
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Paul – Chaffee – Goncalves8:22
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont6:38
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPerbix – Lilleberg11:33
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:08
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Raddysh2:57
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).