Thu, Dec 19, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 15 | 24 | 110 | 11 | 520 |
| NSH | 29 | 17 | 110 | 00 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Filip Forsberg, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:21PITBryan RustAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:57NSHLuke EvangelistaPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 3:38NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 7:54PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 9:08PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 7:44NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary L'Heureux · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 11:36PITErik KarlssonAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 1:07PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:27NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:53PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:28PITAnthony Beauvillier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31PITBlake Lizotte: Kneeing2 min
- P2 5:58NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:38PITErik Karlsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:17PITBlake Lizotte: Interference2 min
- P3 17:53NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell10:42
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Beauvillier – Tomasino – O'Connor3:28
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte9:39
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Tomasino4:00
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk14:56
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Letang – Pickering11:57
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Graves – Shea12:03
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg9:38
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – L'Heureux9:48
xG 0.60–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:15
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – McCarron – Smith6:31
xG 0.03–0.07 (32%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Gaizo11:31
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Wilsby14:34
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Skjei – Blankenburg13:20
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).