Thu, Dec 19, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 06 | 08 | 01 | 226 |
| EDM | 05 | 110 | 19 | 12 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07BOSElias LindholmAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 17:35BOSMark KastelicAssists: John Beecher, Brandon Carlo · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 11:17EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 17:39EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl · Poke, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 1:04EDMMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:47BOSNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:00EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:49BOSMason Lohrei: Holding2 min
- P2 17:22EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Geekie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Frederic – Wahlstrom6:56
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:51
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau11:59
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Kastelic – Beecher – McLaughlin4:00
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Carlo15:22
xG 0.81–0.36 (69%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Peeke – Lohrei13:24
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy15:37
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid12:27
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Brown – Janmark – Arvidsson3:28
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Skinner2:55
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Skinner – Janmark3:21
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard8:34
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Emberson4:52
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stecher – Emberson3:47
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).