Fri, Dec 20, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 1, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 011 | 06 | 03 | 127 |
| FLA | 010 | 17 | 09 | 11 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Alexandre Texier, Zachary Bolduc · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:58FLAUvis BalinskisAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 4:43FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:13STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P2 16:54FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:19FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- OT 4:17STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway12:09
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:07
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:14
xG 0.25–0.43 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Texier – Bolduc9:20
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Faulk10:31
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko17:38
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Perunovich – Broberg5:22
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk15:38
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 26–12goals 1–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich10:55
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell12:59
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich7:20
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling19:08
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Schmidt2:03
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis10:44
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).