Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 27 | 07 | 08 | 00 | 222 |
| EDM | 19 | 023 | 19 | 11 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23SJSLuke KuninAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Timothy Liljegren · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:07EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 8:21SJSJan RuttaAssists: Jake Walman, Macklin Celebrini · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:42EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Corey Perry, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- OT 0:18EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:44EDMKasperi Kapanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:50SJSMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:17SJSWilliam Eklund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Grundstrom – Sturm – Smith4:31
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Kovalenko – Celebrini8:54
xG 0.26–0.61 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund12:40
xG 0.27–0.79 (25%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Kunin10:42
xG 0.35–1.06 (25%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Thrun2:16
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Walman – Liljegren2:17
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Rutta2:54
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:01
xG 1.27–0.29 (82%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:40
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin7:45
xG 0.37–0.13 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Arvidsson7:28
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:55
xG 1.57–0.36 (81%)attempts 36–9goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse13:27
xG 0.94–0.37 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher5:07
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).