Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 0, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 06 | 07 | 019 |
| WPG | 210 | 17 | 27 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51WPGNikolaj EhlersPPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:54WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Alex Iafallo, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 5:19WPGNeal PionkPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 2:07WPGCole PerfettiUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 7:36WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Neal Pionk, Cole Perfetti · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:32WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:45MINJon Merrill: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 7:26MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:22WPGDylan DeMelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:22MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:05WPGColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:05MINJesper Wallstedt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:30WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:10WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:50MINBrendan Gaunce: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:29MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Gaudreau – Boldy7:58
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Boyd – Gaunce – Shore7:04
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Khusnutdinov7:53
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi9:12
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Faber15:37
xG 0.84–0.95 (47%)attempts 25–13goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill13:36
xG 0.21–0.44 (32%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm9:37
xG 0.27–0.85 (24%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton4:11
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti7:35
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson6:49
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:44
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey11:43
xG 1.44–0.21 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Fleury – Pionk9:10
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Fleury2:16
xG 0.02–0.02 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).