Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 26 | 04 | 11 | 522 |
| VAN | 26 | 18 | 111 | 00 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:22OTTShane PintoAssists: Michael Amadio, Nick Cousins · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 18:04VANBrock BoeserAssists: Quinn Hughes, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.31 xG2–1
- P1 19:42VANQuinn HughesAssists: Conor Garland, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 4:24OTTShane PintoAssists: Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 13:36VANJake DeBruskAssists: Quinn Hughes, Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 15:30OTTJosh NorrisSHAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 15:10VANBrock BoeserAssists: Pius Suter, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.22 xG4–4
- OT 0:15OTTJake SandersonGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:33VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:44VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:02VANDanton Heinen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:20OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P3 18:08VANNoah Juulsen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:10OTTClaude Giroux: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:01
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto8:09
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
- Gaudette – Gregor – Ostapchuk3:42
xG 0.01–0.05 (16%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gregor – Pinto3:14
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot17:11
xG 1.19–0.43 (73%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven11:54
xG 0.52–1.13 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Sanderson14:41
xG 0.10–0.73 (12%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Suter – Karlsson6:46
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson11:33
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood9:01
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:28
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes14:59
xG 1.26–0.64 (66%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Desharnais – Hughes3:23
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Desharnais11:48
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).