Sat, Dec 21, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 2, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 06 | 19 | 223 |
| VGK | 310 | 011 | 313 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:39VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Victor Olofsson, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:50VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 17:48VGKNicolas HagueGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 8:09VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 11:28VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Mark Stone, Tanner Pearson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 13:58SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Shane Wright, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 18:51VGKMark StoneENAssists: Brett Howden · Snap, 0.51 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:26VGKNicolas Hague: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 9:27SEARyker Evans: Holding2 min
- P1 10:15VGKVictor Olofsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:40VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Interference2 min
- P3 13:04VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:44
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gourde – Tanev – Tolvanen2:48
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Gourde – Sprong – Tanev9:26
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Burakovsky – Wright9:40
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mahura – Evans9:43
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Mahura3:34
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:27
xG 0.70–1.06 (40%)attempts 16–22goals 0–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Hertl – Kolesar11:18
xG 1.01–0.30 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Stone – Eichel – Howden10:24
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 3–0
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz4:46
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Eichel – Dorofeyev2:36
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin17:41
xG 1.06–0.34 (76%)attempts 23–12goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:57
xG 0.91–0.19 (82%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:41
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).