Sun, Dec 22, 2024·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Anaheim Ducks 5, Utah Hockey Club 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 111 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 530 |
| UTA | 29 | 28 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26UTAClayton KellerAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Barrett Hayton · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 4:56ANARobby FabbriAssists: Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 16:09UTABarrett HaytonAssists: Olli Maatta, Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 2:39UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 5:57UTAClayton KellerAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.34 xG1–4
- P2 10:49ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Olen Zellweger, Jansen Harkins · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 12:35ANARobby FabbriAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Pavel Mintyukov · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 15:15ANABrett LeasonPPAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Olen Zellweger · Snap, 0.17 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. UTA Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. ANA Troy Terry stopped
- 3. UTA Clayton Keller stopped
- 4. ANA Brock McGinn stopped
- 5. UTA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 6. ANA Mason McTavish scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:04ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:43ANAMason McTavish: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:45UTALogan Cooley: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 1:21ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:06UTAJack McBain: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24UTAMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:26UTADakota Mermis: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:56UTAAlexander Kerfoot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:48ANALeo Carlsson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:35ANARobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:31UTALogan Cooley: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHarkins – Lundeström – Leason6:03
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – McGinn – Carlsson6:50
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier10:35
xG 0.61–0.85 (42%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry9:49
xG 0.60–0.96 (38%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Mintyukov8:26
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Trouba – LaCombe2:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger13:30
xG 0.32–0.49 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:00
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone5:27
xG 0.71–0.14 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:45
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley7:02
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kesselring13:07
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Mermis – Välimäki7:09
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
- Maatta – Sergachev12:39
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).