Sun, Dec 22, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Seattle Kraken 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 13 | 17 | 09 | 219 |
| COL | 19 | 210 | 210 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:55SEAJared McCannAssists: Shane Wright, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:01SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:12COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 12:01COLJoel KivirantaGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 17:26COLJoel KivirantaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–4
- P3 18:28COLJoel KivirantaENAssists: Parker Kelly, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:48SEAEeli Tolvanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:29SEABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:25SEAVince Dunn: Holding2 min
- P2 18:46SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:53COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers10:20
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Kartye – Meyers5:58
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Gourde – McCann – Wright8:51
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:37
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn12:13
xG 0.79–0.30 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Mahura – Evans13:42
xG 0.28–0.02 (95%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Montour – Dunn3:17
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin11:19
xG 0.90–0.68 (57%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta8:32
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Ivan – Innala5:11
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Colton – Mittelstadt8:32
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar8:47
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Middleton – Malinski2:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Makar – Malinski2:37
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).