Sun, Dec 22, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 17 | 08 | 121 |
| EDM | 17 | 110 | 14 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 0:25OTTNick CousinsUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 14:05EDMZach HymanPPGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 1:38EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:50OTTJake Sanderson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:03OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:03EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min
- P2 1:00OTTCole Reinhardt: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:37EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:54OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:25OTTRidly Greig: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:03
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Reinhardt3:39
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Greig3:07
xG 0.05–0.24 (17%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Pinto – Greig7:22
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot13:37
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Chabot – Sanderson3:41
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven9:10
xG 0.11–0.31 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Arvidsson – McDavid10:39
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Perry – Skinner – Ryan7:28
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark5:50
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin10:15
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard12:48
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Nurse – Stecher7:02
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Stecher – Emberson3:56
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).