Mon, Dec 23, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 03 | 14 | 04 | 111 |
| BOS | 16 | 07 | 39 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:12BOSJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Mason Lohrei · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:50WSHJakub VranaPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 13:41BOSElias LindholmGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 15:59BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 18:38BOSBrad MarchandENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.82 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:58BOSMason Lohrei: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:54WSHMartin Fehérváry: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:04WSHMatt Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:10BOSOliver Wahlstrom: Boarding5 min
- P3 0:10BOSOliver Wahlstrom: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:16WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 7:16BOSElias Lindholm: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:45WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:38WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:38BOSElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:38WSHDylan Strome: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas6:36
xG 0.07–0.06 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Vrana – Miroshnichenko2:20
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime3:49
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Mangiapane – Strome8:38
xG 0.04–0.42 (8%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:49
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin7:55
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry10:29
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Lindholm9:34
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher7:00
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie6:28
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Wahlstrom4:27
xG 0.06–0.34 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy13:37
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Peeke – Lohrei10:10
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Carlo11:59
xG 0.12–0.57 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).