Mon, Dec 23, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 4, Detroit Red Wings 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 27 | 14 | 421 |
| DET | 03 | 06 | 010 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:14STLDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Jordan Kyrou · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:18STLAlexandre TexierAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 7:45STLDylan HollowayAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 15:54STLDylan HollowayENAssists: Colton Parayko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–0
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:32STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:27DETDylan Larkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:00DETAlex DeBrincat: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Texier12:23
xG 0.96–0.14 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:18
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Walker – Joseph – Toropchenko9:59
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Neighbours – Bolduc10:10
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko17:45
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 15–14goals 3–0
- Faulk – Broberg15:24
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Faulk3:23
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Copp – Fischer5:41
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Veleno – Berggren – Kasper11:32
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat4:00
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Raymond6:30
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Petry – Gustafsson17:30
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Lagesson2:13
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lagesson – Johansson11:58
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).