Mon, Dec 23, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 310 | 115 | 431 |
| CBJ | 211 | 18 | 213 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 18:45CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Zach Werenski, Mathieu Olivier · Bat, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 2:03MTLDavid SavardAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:34CBJJordan HarrisAssists: Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 7:03MTLLane HutsonAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:26MTLJake EvansAssists: Emil Heineman, David Savard · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 0:20MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jake Evans, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 3:24CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 17:48CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:58CBJDmitri Voronkov: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 18:00CBJIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:09MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman9:20
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:37
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook5:36
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:50
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 16–14goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle15:03
xG 0.76–0.40 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Savard – Xhekaj14:24
xG 0.57–0.56 (51%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
- Matheson – Hutson19:36
xG 1.03–1.07 (49%)attempts 22–19goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Johnson – Sillinger12:25
xG 0.70–0.49 (59%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Aston-Reese – Pyyhtia2:20
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov15:49
xG 0.62–0.59 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 3–1
- van Riemsdyk – Aston-Reese – Fantilli8:14
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Harris3:27
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Werenski – Provorov2:14
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Christiansen4:36
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).