Mon, Dec 23, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 06 | 213 | 227 |
| NSH | 111 | 19 | 35 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 11:45NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Tommy Novak, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 0:30NSHRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 2:52NSHMark JankowskiAssists: Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 4:37CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, William Carrier · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 5:17CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 16:48NSHJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.80 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:26CARWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min
- P1 1:26NSHNick Blankenburg: Holding2 min
- P1 10:06CARJackson Blake: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:31NSHLuke Evangelista: Holding2 min
- P3 0:22CARDmitry Orlov: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier10:12
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi2:43
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jost – Robinson – Blake8:02
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Jost – Svechnikov – Blake2:23
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Chatfield17:22
xG 0.80–0.77 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Walker17:02
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:50
xG 0.31–1.21 (20%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – L'Heureux11:46
xG 1.01–0.37 (73%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:04
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg11:57
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Sissons – McCarron3:12
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Barron5:37
xG 0.65–0.18 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Schenn – Lauzon2:40
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Lauzon4:32
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).